Market Update Q4 2025

Here’s a snapshot of what’s really happening in the Summit County residential market—and why perspective matters more than headlines.

Looking back over 26 years of residential sales (2000–2025), the market continues to show resilience. Total sales are up 9% year over year, while the average sold price increased a modest 1%.

Single-family homes tell an especially interesting story in 2025. While average sold prices dipped slightly, sales volume surged by 22%. Buyers are active and motivated, even as pricing normalizes after recent highs. This aligns with what we’ve seen on the inventory side. With more inventory than the past few years, naturally more sales are occurring. I had projected inventory would reach roughly 900 properties in 2025, which happened in July of 2025. While the year finished closer to 500 active listings which is normal with seasonality, I expect inventory levels to remain elevated into 2026—potentially approaching 900 again as we move into the selling season in the Spring.

One variable that could limit inventory growth in 2026 is new construction. Many projects that broke ground in 2023 or later are finishing and closing in 2025 and 2026. Once those units are absorbed, a slowdown in new development could place upward pressure on resale prices. A prime example is Kindred in Keystone. When those sales close, we’ll likely see comparable prices exceeding $2,000 per square foot. While it is the final ski-in/ski-out project in Keystone, those are Vail-level price points—never say never.

Drilling down further, individual high-end sales can skew the data. In Dillon, a single $7M sale inflated averages; without it, prices are only up about 0.5%. Keystone saw a similar effect, with a $7M sale in 2025 and a sub-$1M sale in 2024—remove both, and the average price increase is just 0.2%. Frisco followed suit, with two single-family sales over $6M, the highest prices ever recorded there.

The takeaway? The Summit County market remains active and healthy, but the real story is in the details. There is no longer a one-size-fits-all narrative. Instead, we’re seeing distinct micro-markets driven by property type, age, amenities, and location.

One thing is clear: the luxury market is thriving, and I expect that momentum to continue into 2026. Price per square foot for properties $2M and above continues to climb year after year. As the saying goes in Aspen, “Billionaires are pushing out the millionaires.” Steve Wynn paid $108M for the record sale in Aspen in 2024, and there is currently a property on the market for $300M “Little Lake Lodge” - with a limited buyer pool of 2800 individuals world wide.

The one factor Summit County lacks at the very top end is a private airport. This often creates a pricing ceiling around $10M, where buyers pivot to markets like Vail, Telluride, Steamboat, or Aspen—especially as Aspen moves forward with major airport improvements. Who wants to be burdened with I-70 traffic? Not these buyers.

So what happens to the non-millionaire population in Summit County? Great question! I think this demographic has 3 choices:

1. Move to Leadville, Kremling, Alma/Fairplay and Commute into Summit.

2. Buy deed restricted housing and accept this will not be your primary investment vehicle. 2-3% annual cap rates are not going to get the job done when that time comes.

3. Say goodbye and migrate to more affordable pastures.

“We are just an advanced breed of monkeys on a minor planet of a very average star, but we can understand the Universe. That makes us something special.” - Stephen Hawking

Hopefully special enough to keep a community here.