Market Update Q4 2025
The Emergence of Micro Markets
Spring Storms, Inventory Avalanches, and Micro Markets......
What is going to happen as we move into full spring and brace for the selling season? Let’s start with the snow. What a great year it has been so far for snowpack. Not record breaking, but it will end up overall for the season. Several resorts extended their closing dates! For quick reference, here are the closing dates for all the Summit County resorts:
Keystone - April 6th
Breckenridge - May 11th
Copper Mountain - May 11th
Arapahoe Basin- June 8th
Loveland - May 11th
Inventory (Excluding vacant land and deed restricted housing):
Mid February, we fluctuated between 350-380 properties. As of April 1st - we are at 475 properties. That’s quite an increase, but expected as sellers prepare for the selling season. We will continue to see a flood of inventory hit the market as we get to May/June. My prediction in January was that we will return to pre-pandemic levels between 800-900 properties for sale. IF we hit these levels, the market is returning to a “normalized” market, with even leverage between buyers and sellers.
Micro Markets - Property values in Summit County continue to vary widely depending on year built, updates, location, and property type. New construction condos are holding their prices, while condos built before 1990 have taken a hit on prices - especially if the HOA was hit with an insurance assessment.
For reference - note that Treehouse was built in the 1970’s, Lagoon Townhomes 1990’s, and River West/Sail Lofts 2021/2022
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Summit County Market Update
Sales soared by 33% in January 2025, February sales dropped by 20%, and March sales jumped 18%, resulting in a plus 7% year-to-date increase in the number of residential properties sold.
The average sold price has held firm, with a 13% year-to-date increase. Interestingly, this year, the sales of residential properties that sold for over $2,000,000 increased by 27% compared to the same period (1st Quarter) of 2024, while the sales of properties under $2,000,000 increased by only 3%.
Buyers have opportunities they haven’t had in years. With a one-percentage-point drop in the average list price to sold price percentage to 97%, there is
Tariffs, Uncertainty, and Your Interest Rate
Insights from Athena with Luna Lending
There’s been a lot of speculation about the future of interest rates. Are they coming down or going up? The truth is no one can predict the market. We saw this firsthand last week as we watched the bond market hinge on President Trump’s words during his press conference about the tariff plan.
Most assumed that bonds would be stable heading into Trump’s press conference, but those assumptions were wrong. Mortgage bonds lost about -20bps compared to the morning pricing, opening the door for many negative interest rate reprices.
The oversimplified reason was that traders were getting more optimistic that the tariffs weren’t going to be as bad as originally speculated. Really, it was all just rumor mill stuff, but it was enough for stocks to rally and bonds to lose ground. As the press conference started, that sentiment grew, with the market breathing a sigh of relief that saw stocks rally and bonds lose more ground. However, that quickly changed as Trump rolled out the actual tariff plan as it stands. By the end of the day, bonds rallied, and stocks plunged.
There is certainly an argument that tariffs will be inflationary, and inflation is bad for bonds. However, this seems to be taking a back seat to overall economic uncertainty. Markets loathe uncertainty and just don’t know what this trade war (a much more fitting term now than it was a couple of weeks ago) will do to the economy. As the economy weakens, it will weaken the labor market as well, and that benefits bonds. Also, we’ve seen a return to the old relationship between stocks and bonds: when stocks lose ground, traders move to safe havens in bonds... so bond yields drop, and rates improve. We saw this happen on Friday.
Will bonds sustain this rally and interest rates continue to lower? It’s possible but not guaranteed! The improvements we saw last week could reverse just as quickly as they came.
Remember, a rate without any context has no meaning. The best interest rate for you, is the rate that affords you the monthly payment you desire and satisfies the funds you have for closing. If you want to learn how to choose the best interest rate for your scenario, give me a call. I’d love to help!
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